Sea ice in the Arctic has failed to re-form for the second consecutive
winter, raising fears that global warming may have tipped the polar
regions in to irreversible climate change far sooner than predicted.
Satellite measurements of the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice
show that for every month this winter, the ice failed to return even to
its long-term average rate of decline. It is the second consecutive
winter that the sea ice has not managed to re-form enough to compensate
for the unprecedented melting seen during the past few summers.
Scientists are now convinced that Arctic sea ice is showing signs of
both a winter and a summer decline that could indicate a major
acceleration in its long-term rate of disappearance. The greatest fear
is that an environmental "positive feedback" has kicked in, where
global warming melts ice which in itself causes the seas to warm still
further as more sunlight is absorbed by a dark ocean rather than being
reflected by white ice.
Mark Serreze, a sea ice specialist at the US National Snow and Ice
Data Centre in Colorado, said: "In September 2005, the Arctic sea ice
cover was at its lowest extent since satellite monitoring began in
1979, and probably the lowest in the past 100 years. While we can't be
certain, it looks like 2006 will be more of the same," Dr Serreze said.
"Unless conditions turn colder, we may be headed for another year of
big sea ice losses, rivalling or perhaps even exceeding what we saw in
September 2005. We are of course monitoring the situation closely ...
Coupled with recent findings from Nasa that the Greenland ice sheet may
be near a tipping point, it's pretty clear that the Arctic is starting
to respond to global warming," he added.
Although sea levels are not affected by melting sea ice - which
floats on the ocean - the Arctic ice cover is thought to be a key
moderator of the northern hemisphere's climate. It helps to stabilise
the massive land glaciers and ice sheets of Greenland which have the
capacity to raise sea levels dramatically.
Dr Serreze said that some parts of the northern hemisphere
experienced very low temperatures this winter, but the Arctic was much
warmer than normal. "Even in January, when there were actually record
low temperatures in Alaska and parts of Russia, it was still very warm
over the Arctic Ocean," he said.
"The sea ice cover waxes and wanes with the seasons. It partly melts
in spring and summer, then grows back in autumn and winter. It has not
recovered well this past winter - ice extent for every month since
September 2005 has been far below average. And it's been so warm in the
Arctic that the ice that has grown this winter is probably rather
thin," he explained.
Professor Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, who was the first
Briton to monitor Arctic sea ice from nuclear submarines, said: "One of
the big changes this winter is that a large area of the Barents Sea has
remained ice-free for the first time. This is part of Europe's 'back
yard'. Climate models did predict a retreat of sea ice in the Barents
Sea but not for a few decades yet, so it is a sign that the changes
that were predicted are indeed happening, but much faster than
predicted."
Sea ice in the Arctic has failed to re-form for the second consecutive
winter, raising fears that global warming may have tipped the polar
regions in to irreversible climate change far sooner than predicted.